Storms as Stress Tests: What Ice Events Reveal About Asset Resilience 

Severe weather events, such as the ice storm Fern, act as a real-world stress test for commercial real estate resilience. While storms of this magnitude are relatively uncommon, they can expose vulnerabilities in building construction, roofing systems, drainage, and site planning that may not be apparent under normal conditions. For CRE owners and investors, storm performance can directly affect operations, capital needs, insurance costs, and long-term asset value, making resilience an increasingly important factor in valuation and investment decisions.  

Winter Storm Fern: What Happened 

Fern delivered widespread ice and freezing conditions across major U.S. markets, including Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, Houston, and several Southeast and Midwest metros. The storm disrupted commercial property operations by causing roof and façade damage, power outages, frozen plumbing, and compromised site access. Parking lots and loading areas were made hazardous by ice accumulation, delaying tenant deliveries and customer traffic. With insured losses projected in the billions, Fern highlighted how extreme weather can affect building systems, operational continuity, and insurance risk. Underscoring the importance of resilience in both asset management and property valuation.  

The Role of Severe Weather in Testing Assets  

Much like financial stress tests evaluate how assets perform under economic pressure, weather events test physical resilience, highlighting which properties are built to withstand disruption and which may face increased operating costs, downtime, or capital expenditures.  

For investors, owners, and appraisers, understanding how properties perform during extreme weather is critical. Not only for assessing operational resilience, but also for determining long-term valuation, insurance exposure, and capital planning. The following areas are particularly tested during storms like Fern:  

• Construction Quality: Storms expose the durability of building materials, structural framing, insulation, and the building envelope. Older or poorly maintained structures may show leaks, cracks, or structural compromise, which can increase repair costs, impact tenant satisfaction, and reduce overall asset value.  

• Roofing Systems: Ice, snow, and heavy precipitation reveal how well roofs handle load-bearing, waterproofing, and drainage. Failures can lead to interior water damage, tenant downtime, higher insurance claims, and accelerated roof replacement cycles.  

• Site Planning & Drainage Design: Grading, stormwater systems, parking lots, and landscaping are tested under extreme runoff and ice accumulation. Poorly designed sites can experience flooding, erosion, or hazardous access, directly affecting tenant operations, customer experience, and marketability.  

• Mechanical & Utility Systems: HVAC, plumbing, electrical, and water systems can be stressed by freezing conditions, power outages, or surges. System failures can disrupt operations, increase maintenance costs, and negatively influence cash flow, lease stability, and property value.  

Implications for Asset Valuation  

Asset resilience is becoming an increasingly important factor in commercial real estate valuation as extreme weather events expose how properties perform under stress. Assets that maintain operations during severe storms may support stronger cash flow assumptions and more stable valuations, while properties with visible vulnerabilities often face higher risk premiums.  

Severe weather can accelerate capital expenditures, particularly for assets with aging roofing, drainage, or mechanical systems, directly impacting net operating income and near-term value. Insurance costs also play a growing role, as storm-related losses can lead to higher premiums, increased deductibles, or reduced coverage, further pressuring operating expenses.  

A property’s ability to maintain tenant access and operational continuity during disruptive events supports tenant retention and income stability, reinforcing long-term asset value in an increasingly risk-aware investment environment.  

Lessons for Developers, Owners, and Investors  

Events like Winter Storm Fern underscore the importance of designing and managing commercial real estate assets to withstand extreme conditions rather than relying on historical averages. As climate volatility increases, resilience-focused design and infrastructure are becoming essential, even in markets not traditionally exposed to winter weather risk.  

For developers and owners, proactive capital planning is critical to limiting long-term exposure. Addressing roofing integrity, insulation, plumbing protection, and site drainage before failures occur can reduce downtime, control repair costs, and protect tenant relationships, rather than relying on reactive responses after damage has occurred.  

From an investment perspective, weather performance is increasingly relevant during acquisition and asset management decisions. Historical storm impacts, insurance claims, and infrastructure readiness should be evaluated alongside traditional underwriting metrics to better understand risk and long-term value preservation. 

Why It Matters:  

• Design assets to withstand extreme weather, not just average conditions  

• Prioritize preventive capital investments over reactive repairs 

• Incorporate weather risk, insurance exposure, and infrastructure resilience into due diligence 

• Use storm performance as a real-world benchmark for asset durability and operational strength 

Winter storm Fern highlights that asset resilience is no longer a secondary consideration in commercial real estate. As severe weather events grow more frequent and costly, property performance under stress increasingly affects valuation, operating expenses, and long-term investment outcomes. For developers, owners, and investors, embedding resilience into design, due diligence, and asset management has become essential to preserving value and sustaining performance.  

Severe weather events are a real-world test of commercial real estate performance. LPA helps owners, developers, and investors evaluate asset resilience, anticipate risks, and implement strategies that safeguard value and operational continuity.  

Despite high inflation and economic headwinds, the 2025 holiday shopping season exceeded expectations. U.S. retail holiday sales surpassed $1 trillion, growing approximately 4% year-over-year, reinforcing the role of sustained consumer demand in stabilizing retail real estate performance across multiple formats.

The strong holiday retail performance highlights consumers’ adaptability, as shoppers are more value-driven, leveraging deals and digital tools to stretch budgets while still powering consumption.

Inflation & Rates Still at a Headwind

• 2026 projects a slow decline in inflation, with cautious optimism around progress toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

• Persistent inflation, tariffs, and broader economic uncertainty have constrained discretionary spending among many consumers.

This environment has shaped retail behavior, with consumers prioritizing value, promotions, and everyday essentials, even as overall spending held up.

Retail Performance & Emerging Patterns

In 2025 and early 2026, the retail RE market displayed mixed but notable trends. Driven by necessity-based foot traffic, prime and grocery-anchored centers continue to outperform. Secondary centers, however, face ongoing pressure from footprint rationalization and shifting consumer behavior. As investors refocused on experience-driven and repositioned properties, mall transactions increased. These deals prioritize redevelopments and property enhancements over conventional leasing, reflecting a selective investment approach. This momentum also contributed to the growth in e-commerce and, combined with uneven discretionary category performance, emphasized the importance of adaptive tenant strategies and strategic property positioning.

CRE Takeaways: What This Means for Investors 

The retail real estate market is showing resilience amid shifting consumer behavior and macroeconomic pressures, but success increasingly depends on strategic asset selection. Investors should focus on properties that offer stable cash flow, strong tenant performance, and adaptability to changing market dynamics. Key considerations include:

• High-quality, resilient assets  

• • Prime retail locations and grocery-anchored centers continue to outperform due to consistent foot traffic and reliable tenant sales

• • Prioritize assets with strong occupancy, durable tenants, and necessity-driven demand.

• Selective Approach to Malls and Secondary Assets  

• • Malls are attracting renewed interest, but mainly experience-driven, well-repositioned properties are drawing capital.

• • Secondary or discretionary-focused centers face challenges from footprint rationalization, e-commerce, and evolving consumer preferences.

• Macro Factors Matter  

• • Inflation, interest rates, and consumer spending trends influence valuations and cash flow stability.

• • Assets that can weather moderate inflation and shifting demand will outperform over time.

• Adapting to Consumer Behavior  

• • E-commerce growth and uneven discretionary sales highlight the need for adaptive tenant strategies

• • Consider tenant mix, experiential offerings, and omnichannel integration to maintain competitiveness.

• Opportunities in Strategy and Repositioning 

• • Repositioned, redeveloped, or experience-enhanced properties are more likely to attract tenants and investors.

Looking Ahead for 2026

In 2026, retail will continue to reflect evolving consumer behavior and economic conditions. Pricing sensitivity, selective promotional strategies, and shifting seasonal hiring trends are influencing shopping patterns, while the performance gap between stronger and weaker retail assets underscores the importance of adaptive reuse and strategic repositioning.

Understanding which retail assets will thrive in 2026 requires data, experience, and foresight. Lowery Property Advisors delivers market analysis and property-level insights to help you identify high-performing opportunities, manage risk, and position your portfolio for success.

In an environment where markets, regulations, and investor expectations are evolving faster than ever, relying on outdated valuations can quietly expose organizations to significant risk. When valuations are built on outdated assumptions, they often miss critical financial pressures, regulatory requirements, and shifts in market sentiment. Viewing valuation as a one-time calculation can lead to mispriced assets, poor capital allocation, and weakened long-term performance. What seems stable on paper can quickly become vulnerable as hidden risks come to light.  

Why Valuations Became Outdated  

Commercial real estate valuations can become outdated faster than many investors realize, leaving assets mispriced and decisions misinformed. Market conditions, property performance, and emerging risks evolve constantly, and a valuation that doesn’taccount for these changes can misrepresent a property’s true value. The following factors are some of the most common reasons valuations lose accuracy, creating hidden risks for investors and stakeholders alike.  

1. Rapid Market Shifts 

CRE markets are susceptible to changes in supply, demand, interest rates, and rental trends. A property valuation based on last quarter’s data may no longer reflect current market conditions, leading investors to mispriced assets or miss opportunities.  

1. Operational Performance Variations  

Factors such as tenant turnover, deferred maintenance, renovations, or changing occupancy rates can significantly affect a property’s income stream. A valuation that doesn’t account for these operational realities is likely inaccurate.  

1. Overreliance on Historical Performance  

Using past performance as a proxy for future returns can be misleading. Without incorporating current market trends, investor assumptions, or emerging risks, valuations may overestimate growth or understate potential downside.  

1. Emerging Liabilities and Hidden Risks  

Environmental liabilities, reputational risks, or unanticipated operational challenges can surface unexpectedly. Outdated valuations that ignore these factors can create hidden exposure for investors.  

Financial Risks of Outdated Valuations  

Relying on outdated valuations can quickly put investors at financial risk. A property that looks profitable on paper may be mispriced due to changes in the market conditions or overlooked operational challenges. Cash flow projections can become unreliable, loan approvals are harder to secure, and portfolio performance becomes harder to evaluate. Emerging liabilities, including environmental issues and unexpected maintenance costs, can turn a seemingly strong investment into a financial burden. Investors who engage with companies or properties that do not maintain accurate and current data are making a riskier bet, which can threaten long-term stability and reduce the likelihood of sustained success.  

Strategic and Operational Consequences  

Outdated valuations don’t just misrepresent value; they can quietly undermine decision-making. When property values are inaccurate, investors and asset managers may make poor acquisition or disposition choices, misallocate capital, or miss critical opportunities to maximize returns.   

Some of the key strategic and operational consequences include:  

• Misaligned Investment Decisions- Inaccurate valuations can lead investors to overpay for properties in overheated markets or sell assets below their true potential. For example, relying on outdated rental rates or occupancy assumptions may make a property appear less profitable than it actually is, causing missed acquisition opportunities or undervalued sales.  

• Missed Opportunities- In commercial real estate, timing is critical. Outdated valuations can delay refinancing, redevelopment, or disposition decisions, resulting in lost potential returns. A property that could have been repositioned, upgraded, or sold at a premium may remain underutilized because investors are working off past data.  

• Stakeholder Confidence Erosion- Investors, lenders, and capital partners expect accurate, up-to-date valuations to make informed decisions. Using outdated numbers can undermine trust, complicate funding negotiations, and reduce credibility with key stakeholders, limiting access to financing or equity for future investments.  

• Inefficient Capital Allocation- When valuations do not reflect current market conditions, investors may channel resources into underperforming properties while overlooking assets with higher growth potential. This misallocation can lower overall portfolio efficiency and limit the ability to maximize returns across a diversified set of properties. 

• Hidden Operational Risks- When valuations are outdated, critical issues like maintenance backlogs, tenant changes, environmental risks, or regulatory obligations can be missed. Ignoring these realities can create surprise costs, disrupt operations, and erode the income potential of a property.  

Operational inefficiencies don’t just affect short-term results; they can also undermine long-term growth and portfolio stability. Relying on outdated valuations exposed investors to greater risk, increasing the likelihood of flawed strategic choices, lostcompetitive advantage, and challenges in achieving enduring success.  

Market Perception and Credibility Risks 

Outdated valuations not only influence financial outcomes but can also harm how investors and the market view a property, portfolio, or company. Accurate valuations are essential for investors, lenders, and partners to assess risk and make informed choices, and relying on past numbers can weaken trust in a company’s leadership. In commercial real estate, old or inaccurate valuations may create doubts about future returns, asset performance, and the company’s ability to achieve its strategic objectives. Market perception directly influences access to financing, investor interest, and the ability to secure capital for acquisitions or redevelopment. Relying on outdated valuations can also create a credibility gap, where stakeholders question reporting, transparency, and decision-making. Once trust is compromised, it can lead to less favorable loan terms, delayed investments, or reputational damage that impacts competitive positioning. Companies and properties that fail to maintain accuratevaluations face not only financial risk but also diminished market confidence and long-term growth potential.  

When and How Often Valuations Should Be Updated  

Think of property valuations like a pulse check on your portfolio. You don’t need to check it every day, but ignoring it for too long can lead to costly surprises. Here’s an easy way to know when it’s time for an update: 

• At Least Once a Year  

An annual valuation update is the industry baseline. It helps capture changes in rental rates, operating expenses, cap rates, and broader market trends that can materially impact asset value.  

• Anytime the Market Shifts 

Interest rates changing, new supply entering the market, or shifts in tenant demand can quickly make old valuations unreliable. In volatile or fast-moving markets, waiting a full year can leave investors working with outdated assumptions.  

• After Major Property Changes  

Big changes at the asset level should always trigger a review. This includes tenant turnover, lease restructurings, renovations, deferred maintenance, or unexpected capital expenditures that affect income and risk profiles.  

• Before Buying, Selling, or Refinancing  

Transactions demand accuracy. Lenders, buyers, and equity partners rely on current valuations to assess risk and pricing. Outdated numbers can delay deals, weaken negotiating power, or reduce financing options.  

• More Often for Active Portfolios  

For larger portfolios or assets in high-growth or transitional markets, semi-annual or quarterly reviews make sense. Even light-touch updates using current operating and market data can help flag when a full valuation refresh is needed.  

Best Practices: Staying Ahead of Outdated Valuations 

Use this checklist to help ensure property valuations stay accurate, credible, and investment-ready.  

— Keep operating data current  

— Conduct routine valuation reviews  

— Track market and capital trends  

— Revisit valuation assumptions  

— Identify emerging risks early 

— Update valuations before major decisions  

— Ensure data transparency 

Accurate valuations are not a one-time exercise, but an ongoing process. Investors who follow a structured review approach can better identify risk earlier, maintain credibility with stakeholders, and make informed capital decisions as market conditions evolve.  

Bottom line 

Valuations should evolve as quickly as the markets and properties they represent. Regular updates, timely reviews, and transparent data help investors avoid mispricing, reduce risk, and approach transactions with confidence. In today’s CRE environment, accuracy is essential for sustained success.  

At LPA, we help owners, investors, and developers navigate confident decisions in a rapidly evolving CRE market. Whether you’re planning a transaction, managing risk, or reviewing asset values, our appraisal team provides reliable insights aligned with today’s realities. Connect with us to start the conversation.  

The airport is undertaking a $5 billion expansion to nearly double its gate count from 34 to 66, including two new concourses and a modernized Barbara Jordan Terminal (Concourse A). The expansion is backed by long-term airline leases and federal funding commitments, with full completion expected in the early 2030’s. Together, these investments reinforce Austin’s competitive position as a growing national hub.  

Key Components of the Expansion:  

The expansion will include two major concourses that significantly increase passenger capacity and modernize operations. The total of three concourses includes concourses A, B, and M. Concourse A, otherwise known as the Barbara Jordan Terminal, will undergo a redevelopment for a modernized concourse with upgraded amenities, gate seating, and passenger flow. Delta Airlines serves as the Concourse A anchor tenant, followed by American Airlines, Alaska Airlines, and common-use accessibility.  Concourse B, a new concourse, will include 26 gates and enhanced ramp operations to support expected passenger growth. It will be anchored by Southwest Airlines, with service from United Airlines and additional gates available for use by other carriers. Concourse M adds operational flexibility for diverted or off-schedule flights and provides space for new airline entrants. It will feature passenger amenities and a dedicated shuttle connecting it to the Barbara Jordan Terminal (Concourse A). Collectively, the expansion positions AUS for long-term growth, improves the traveler experience, and strengthens commercial real estate prospects.  

Timing and Phasing:   

• Phased Construction: The project is delivered in phases, allowing the airport to maintain normal operations while adding new concourses and modernized facilities.  

• Near-Term Projects (by 2026): These near-term improvements, including the West Gate Expansion, Atrium Infill, West Infill, and Outbound Baggage Handling System, will expand passenger areas, optimize security lanes, and modernize baggage handling.  

• Concourses M and B: Concourse M adds temporary gates for construction flexibility and should be completed near 2027; Concourse B and its connecting tunnel will modernize passenger flow and amenities, pushing a longer finish date near the early 2030s.  

• Arrivals and Departures Hall: A new hall will expand check-in, security, concessions, and overall passenger experience, with full completion estimated in the early 2030s.  

Impact on Commercial Real Estate Valuations:  

The AUS expansion makes Austin more accessible for businesses, travelers, and workers, which can boost demand for office, industrial, hospitality, and mixed-use properties. Areas near the airport, especially East and Southeast Austin, may see rising land values and more interest from developers. Improved air service also benefits downtown offices and mixed-use properties by making business travel and corporate relocations easier. 

 Overall, these improvements help support stronger rents, more stable property income, and greater confidence for investors and lenders, while making it easier to sell or finance properties in the area.   

Economic Ripple Effects:  

This expansion will increase passenger traffic, boosting demand for office space, hotels, and industrial/logistics facilities in East Austin and Surrounding areas. Retail and service businesses will also benefit from higher visitor volumes. The project supports job creation during construction and long-term operations, strengthening the local economy. Overall, these improvements can help reinforce property values, attract investment, and support steady growth across Austin’s commercial real estate market.  

Why It Matters:  

Austin-Bergstrom International Airport’s expansion will improve Austin’s connectivity, attracting new businesses, supporting corporate travel, and boosting demand for office, industrial, hospitality, and mixed-use properties. Areas near the airport and East Austin are likely to see rising land values, while downtown and central districts benefit from easier access for business and conferences. The project also creates jobs during construction and long-term operations, strengthening the local economy and supporting more stable property income and investor confidence.  

Major projects like the AUS expansion influence property demand, leasing, and redevelopment. LPA provides research, valuation guidance, and market insights needed to navigate Austin’s evolving commercial real estate market—so you’re not just reacting to change, but positioned to capitalize on it.

Whether you’re planning, repositioning, or simply need clarity on value, our team is ready to help you make informed, confident decisions.

Mortgage rates have dipped to their lowest levels in more than three years, with the average 30-year fixed rate now hovering just above 6%. While most headlines focus on what this means for homebuyers, the ripple effects extend far beyond the residential market.

For commercial real estate, lower rates influence everything from refinancing activity and transaction volume to development feasibility and asset valuations. At LPA, we’re already seeing how this shift is reshaping owner behavior, investor strategy, and the way properties are being underwritten across the Sunbelt and beyond.

This isn’t just a story about cheaper debt—it’s about renewed momentum.

A Reset in Market Psychology

High interest rates over the past two years created a pause across many sectors. Owners delayed refinancing. Developers shelved projects. Buyers and sellers struggled to align on pricing.

As rates begin to ease, the psychological impact may be just as important as the financial one. Even modest rate reductions:

• Improve debt service coverage ratios

• Expand buyer pools

• Make projects pencil that previously did not

• Encourage owners to revisit capital plans

In other words, capital starts moving again.

For commercial real estate, this often shows up first in refinancing and recapitalization activity. Owners who were waiting out the rate environment now have reason to re-engage lenders, explore loan modifications, or reposition assets for the next cycle.

Why Appraisals Matter More in a Shifting Rate Environment

When rates move, value assumptions move with them.

Appraisals become critical decision tools during these transitions. Whether an owner is refinancing, selling, adding square footage, or planning a redevelopment, lenders and investors need an accurate, market-grounded understanding of value—based on today’s conditions, not last year’s.

At LPA, we see three consistent patterns emerge during periods like this:

1. Refinancing activity increases.
   Even a small rate improvement can materially affect loan proceeds and cash flow. Updated appraisals are required to support these transactions, especially when owners are seeking new terms, extensions, or capital for improvements.

2. Value sensitivity becomes more pronounced.
   When cap rates and borrowing costs are in flux, small changes in assumptions can swing value meaningfully. Professional valuation provides clarity in negotiations and underwriting.

3. Property upgrades are re-evaluated.
   Owners begin asking: If I add space, renovate, or modernize, what does that do to value? Appraisal work helps answer that question before capital is committed.

New Construction and Add-Ons: From “Wait” to “What If?”

Higher rates made many development projects feel out of reach over the past two years. Rising construction costs and tighter lending standards only compounded the challenge.

As financing conditions stabilize, we’re seeing renewed interest in:

• Building additions to existing assets

• Ground-up development in growth corridors

• Adaptive reuse projects

• Tenant-driven expansions

But optimism alone doesn’t make a project viable. The key question becomes:

Does the finished asset justify the cost?

That’s where appraisal insight becomes strategic. For owners and developers, valuation can help:

• Estimate stabilized value of a proposed project

• Compare “as-is” versus “as-complete” scenarios

• Support construction or bridge financing

• Inform design and scope decisions

For example, a retail center owner may be considering adding inline space or a pad site. An appraisal can model how those additions affect net operating income, market positioning, and exit value—before a shovel hits the ground.

In multifamily, developers are re-examining whether luxury or mixed-use components now make sense in markets that paused during the rate spike. Office owners are weighing reconfiguration and conversion strategies. Industrial developers are recalculating feasibility in logistics-driven corridors.

Lower rates don’t eliminate risk—but they restore optionality.

Refinancing Becomes a Strategic Lever

During the higher-rate period, many owners accepted short-term extensions or higher-cost bridge debt simply to maintain flexibility. Now, refinancing becomes a tool for:

• Locking in improved terms

• Pulling equity for capital improvements

• Restructuring balance sheets

• Stabilizing long-term cash flow

Each of these decisions hinges on credible valuation.

Lenders want to understand current market rent, absorption, vacancy, and income durability. Investors want clarity on how today’s asset compares to yesterday’s assumptions. Appraisals serve as the common language between all parties.

As refinancing volume increases, so does the need for valuation that reflects:

• Local market nuance

• Submarket performance

• Asset-specific risk

• Real-time comparable data

This is especially important in Sunbelt markets, where growth remains strong but varies block by block.

The Bigger Picture: A Gradual, Not Explosive, Recovery

While the direction is positive, this is not a return to the ultra-low-rate environment of the early 2020s. Most economists expect rates to remain in the low-6% range for some time, meaning the recovery ahead will likely be measured rather than explosive.

At Lowery Property Advisors, we view appraisal as more than a snapshot in time—it’s a strategic tool for real-world decisions. Our work supports:

• Refinancing and recapitalization

• Acquisition and disposition

• New construction and expansions

• Portfolio analysis

• Redevelopment and adaptive reuse

As rates shift, our clients rely on us to translate market movement into actionable insight grounded in data, local expertise, and real transaction behavior. Whether you’re considering a refinance, planning an addition, or evaluating new development, understanding value in today’s market is the first step toward moving forward with confidence.

Bottom Line:
Falling mortgage rates are restoring momentum across real estate. For owners and developers, the opportunity isn’t just cheaper capital—it’s renewed flexibility.

At LPA, we help owners, investors, and developers navigate these shifts with clarity and confidence. Whether you’re refinancing, planning an expansion, or evaluating a new project, our appraisal team is here to provide the insight you need to move forward. Connect with us to start the conversation.

AT&T is relocating its global headquarters from downtown Dallas to a new 54-acre campus in Plano’s Legacy District. This move marks a major shift in corporate real estate dynamics in North Texas, reshaping urban cores, fueling suburban growth, and influencing commercial property trends.  

What’s Happening  

Through employee surveys, AT&T gathered feedback and incorporated those insights directly into the development plans. Workforce feedback has highlighted the need for professional office spaces that support day-to-day functionality and collaboration. After taking a year to reflect, AT&T decided to go ahead with the plans of relocating their global headquarters to 5400 Legacy Drive in Plano, Texas.  

The move highlights the appeal of large suburban campuses, offering space, flexibility, and cost efficiency that urban offices can’t easily match. AT&T plans to begin partial occupancy by late 2028, transforming the site into a modern, collaborative campus opening opportunities to have employee experience as the central focus. 

How This Impacts Commercial Real Estate 

AT&T’s big move shifts Dallas-Fort Worth commercial real estate, driving downtown vacancies and boosting suburban office demand.  

• Downtown Dallas: 

With AT&T relocating its headquarters, downtown Dallas may see increased office vacancies and downward pressure on rents due to the loss of a major anchor tenant. The departure highlights a broad trend of companies moving to suburban campuses, ultimately challenging Landlords and investors to adapt their strategies to increase retainment and repurpose urban office space. That said, Dallas’ resilience and ability to attract new opportunities suggest the downtown market will continue to evolve and recover.  

• Plano: 

The city of Plano offers large, flexible land parcels, established infrastructure, and a thriving business environment that makes it ideal for modern corporate campuses. Historically, Plano’s Legacy District has been a hub for major corporate relocations, including Toyota North America, Liberty Mutual, and Frito-Lay, establishing the area as a prime destination for large-scale office campuses. Suburbs like Plano are becoming key corporate hubs, which drives office development, mixed-use growth, and investor opportunities, while reshaping local commercial real estate dynamics.  

Why Corporate HQs Are Leaving Big Cities 

A growing trend in commercial real estate is corporations relocating to suburban or amenity-rich campus environments. Recently, corporations valued space, flexibility, and employee experience. The modern workplace highlights amenities, natural light, outdoor spaces, and collaborative layouts. Suburban campuses can accommodate these features more easily than dense city offices.  

Hybrid work and new return-to-office norms are driving companies to reconsider where they locate offices and what types of spaces best support employees. While many employers are tightening return-to-office mandates to encourage collaboration and culture building, hybrid work remains prevalent and influences decisions about office size, layout, and location. This dynamic encourages the development of suburban or mixed-use campuses that offer easier commutes, more space for collaboration, and the ability to support new workplace models that blend in-office and remote work.  

Similar trends are emerging in markets like Atlanta, Phoenix, and Raleigh-Durham, where large employers are choosing suburban campuses or lifestyle-oriented office environments over traditional downtown headquarters. For example, Mercedes-Benz recently expanded its North American headquarters to suburban Atlanta to accommodate growth, collaboration, and modern workplace needs. This just illustrates that Dallas-Fort Worth is part of a wider movement in corporate real estate.  

Real Estate Investment Opportunities and Risks  

Opportunities: 

• Suburban office conversions – Corporations moving to suburban campuses create demand for modern office spaces, driving new construction, adaptive reuse, and leasing activity outside urban cores. 

• Land development around legacy campuses – Large parcels like AT&T’s Plano site provide opportunities for mixed-use development, including office expansions, amenities, and supporting infrastructure. 

• New retail and housing demand – Suburban campuses stimulate the local economy, increasing demand for housing, restaurants, and retail services to support employees and attract talent. 

Risks: 

• Downtown office vacancies – The departure of key tenants like AT&T may raise vacancies, lower rents, and push landlords to adapt or repurpose older office buildings. 

• Changing corporate demand patterns – Hybrid work and corporate relocation trends may reduce demand for traditional downtown offices, creating uncertainty in long-term leasing strategies and investment returns. 

What’s Next for Dallas and North Texas CRE 

Since AT&T’s announcement of their departure, Dallas leaders and property owners are taking proactive steps to keep attraction. To keep urban core competitive to suburban campuses in terms of flexibility, employee experience, and convenience, there needs to be initiatives in place. This may include incentives for relocations or expansions, improving transit and connectivity, and enhancing amenities in office towers.  

Dallas may experience higher vacancies in the short term, but this could also accelerate redevelopment trends. Older office towers could be repurposed into residential units, or flexible work environments. This trend is already visible in Phoenix, where Kinella Capital has taken over the One Camelback development for an office-to-residential conversion. Dallas, like other markets, has the chance to turn these challenges into opportunities by rethinking how office buildings serve today’s evolving urban landscape.  

LPA brings trusted commercial real estate appraisal and advisory expertise, providing insight to help clients navigate market shifts, corporate relocations, and adaptive reuse trends. Through detailed valuation and market analysis, our team examines how major relocations—like AT&T’s move from downtown Dallas to Plano—shift demand, reposition properties, and reshape value in both urban and suburban markets over time.

Dallas County is targeting 2026 to purchase land for a new jail, a project expected to cost up to $5 billion and take nearly a decade to complete. The Lew Sterrett Justice Center’s severe overcrowding and nearly 50-year-oldinfrastructure are key drivers behind plans for its replacement.  

Consultants are already evaluating how the new facility would be designed and built, though a final site has not yet been selected. What is clear though, is that the new jail will not remain at its current riverfront location between Dallas’ two iconic Calatrava bridges. State law requires the jail to remain within a few miles of the county courthouse, which narrows potential locations.  

Why this Matters for Commercial Real Estate  

The most consequential aspect of the project may not be the jail itself, but where it won’t be.  

The Jail’s relocation has implications far beyond public safety infrastructure. Moving the facility would free up 15 acres of highly visible, county-owned riverfront land near downtown. This is one of the most prominent undeveloped parcels in the city.  

The site, currently valued at approximately $109 million, sits along the Trinity River corridor and has already been discussed as a potential location for major redevelopment, including a new Dallas Mavericks arena, mixed-used development, or other civic and commercial uses. For commercial real estate, this represents a rare instance where public-sector investment directly unlocks private-sector opportunity. 

A Rare Redevelopment Opportunity  

Large, contiguous riverfront sites near downtown are increasingly scarce. The potential availability of this parcel creates an opportunity for:  

• Mixed-use residential and commercial development  

• Sports, entertainment, or cultural facilities 

• Public-private partnerships tied to urban revitalization  

• Long-term value creation along the Trinity River corridor  

Because the land is county-owned, any redevelopment would likely involve complex negotiations, zoning considerations, and public input, but also offers the chance to shape a high-profile gateway into downtown Dallas.  

What’s Next  

Dallas County expects to acquire land for the new jail in 2026, which would formalize relocation plans and begin the multi-year process of approvals, design, and construction. The county is also prioritizing a modern, outcomes-focused jail, emphasizing mental health treatment, rehabilitation, and reduced recidivism. A shift that could influence facility design, land needs, and surrounding infrastructure.  

CRE Takeaway 

For commercial real estate professionals, Dallas County’s jail project signals:  

• A long-term redevelopment catalyst tied to public-sector investment  

• The potential release of one of downtown Dallas’ most valuable riverfront sites 

• Opportunities for large-scale mixed-use, civic, or entertainment-driven development 

• A project timeline measured in years, allowing for strategic positioning and planning 

As plans progress, the relocation of the Lew Sterrett Justice Center could prove to be one of the most consequential real estate shifts in downtown Dallas in decades, reshaping both the skyline and the development pipeline along the Trinity River.  

At LPA, we track projects like this because major public-sector investments often precede meaningful shifts in land value and redevelopment potential. As plans advance, accurate valuation, market context, and timing will be critical for understanding how opportunities along the Trinity River corridor evolve.

If you’re evaluating property impacted by public infrastructure projects or need data-driven insight into land value and highest-and-best-use considerations, LPA provides the research and valuation expertise to support informed decisions.

2025 marked a turning point for multifamily real estate, with a surge in luxury apartment development across the U.S. This increase in high-end supply began to reshape rent trends and renter behaviors.  

The Rise of Luxury Apartment Development  

Luxury apartment development gained momentum in 2025 as developers shifted toward Class A multifamily projects nationwide. Higher land prices, labor constraints, and construction costs pushed many developers toward higher-end properties to maintain returns. As a result, new deliveries increasingly featured modern design, premium finishes, and extensive amenity packages. 

Several key factors drove this expansion such as population growth, investor demand, and higher construction costs. Rapid population growth, especially in fast-growing regions, continued to support rental demand even as affordability pressures increase. At the same time, investors gravitate towards luxury multifamily properties for their stability, consistent income, and performance. Rising construction costs also play a role, encouraging developers to look into higher-end projects that could support the higher rents.  

Luxury apartment development was heavily concentrated in the Sun Belt and high-growth metropolitan markets, including Texas, Florida, Ariona, and much of the Southeast. These areas are prime targets for multifamily investment because they have a large growing population, strong job-creation, and pro-business policies. As a result, many of these markets saw a major increase in luxury apartment deliveries throughout 2025.  

How Luxury Supply Is Affecting Rent Growth  

Many high-end apartment buildings are opening simultaneously in the same markets, creating direct competition for renters. With significantly more luxury apartments available than in the past, landlords can no longer rely on scarcity to drive up rents, resulting in slower rent growth. To attract tenants, properties must differentiate themselves by offering unique features or incentives, such as move-in specials, reduced deposits, or flexible lease terms. Concessions, like a free month of rent, are increasingly common in Class A units. This competition at the top tier also eases pressure on Class B and C properties, moderating rent growth across the broader market. Ultimately, luxury apartments now compete through a combination of amenities, services, and strategic pricing to stand out in a crowded market.   

Overall, the growing supply of luxury apartments in 2025 increased competition, slowing rent growth at the top tier and creating ripple effects that moderate rents across more affordable Class B and C units.  

Renter Seasonality and Leasing Patterns  

The peak rental season typically runs from late spring through summer, driven by factors like new job relocations, graduations, and families moving before the school year. During this time, rents often reach their highest levels, and landlords can be more selective with tenants. Conversely, fall and winter tend to be slower, prompting landlords to offer concessions or more flexible lease terms. However, in 2025, the surge of new luxury apartments gave a wider range of options, limiting landlords’ ability to raise rents even during the traditionally high-demand months.  

Shifting Tenant Preferences  

Renters are becoming more selective, focusing on getting value for their money, flexible lease terms, and apartments with appealing amenities. Features that used to be considered premium, like gyms, coworking spaces, and smart-home technology, are now expected in most luxury apartments. Because rent growth is slowing, some renters are moving to smaller or more affordable units, trading down from luxury apartments to save money. This shift reflects a growing emphasis on quality, convenience, and experience over simply occupying a high-end space.  

Regional Differences Across the U.S.  

• Sun Belt Markets 

Sun Belt Markets continue to lead in luxury apartment absorption. Cities like Dallas, Houston, Miani, and Phoenix are seeing rapid leasing due to strong population growth, job creation, and inbound migration. High demand allows new luxury units to lease quickly, though developers still face pressure to differentiate properties with amenities, services, and pricing strategies.  

• Slow-Growth or Supply-Heavy Markets  

In slower-growing or overbuilt metropolitan areas, leasing new luxury apartments has been more challenging. With higher vacancy and more competition among landlords, properties take longer to fill, which can slow rent growth. Landlords in these markets often rely on incentives or flexible lease terms to attract tenants.  

• Suburban Luxury Developments 

Suburban luxury apartments are gaining popularity as renters seek more space, affordability, and access to lifestyle amenities outside urban cores. These developments are capturing demand from families and professionals looking for a balance between city convenience and suburban living. This trend highlights a broader shift in renter preferences beyond traditional downtown locations.   

What This Means for Developers and Investors 

For developers and investors, timing and differentiation are critical. Delivering new apartments during peak leasing season, typically in spring and summer, helps maximize occupancy and rent potential. Properties must stand out with unique amenities and thoughtful pricing, rather than relying on being new or classified as luxury. Operators should also focus on efficient management and tenant satisfaction to reduce turnover and maintain stable income, as tenant experience increasingly drives rental success.  

Looking Ahead to 2026 

In 2026, the pace of luxury apartment construction is expected to moderate resulting in fewer new units entering the market. As luxury supply stabilizes, rent growth is also likely to stabilize. In contrast, demand for high-quality apartments will remain strong. Allowing developers and investors who prioritize value, thoughtful design, and compelling amenities to be in a better position to succeed in a more competitive market.  

The expansion of luxury apartments highlights the importance of linking national multifamily trends to local market conditions and asset performance. At LPA, we remain focused on providing the insights and strategic support needed to navigate the market headed into 2026.  

Retail: Evolution Over Extinction 

For years, retail was often viewed as a declining asset class, driven by the steady rise of e-commerce and accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020–2021. Online shopping reshaped consumer expectations around convenience, speed, and price, putting pressure on traditional formats—particularly big-box and commodity-driven retail. At the same time, oversupply in certain markets and several high-profile retailer bankruptcies contributed to the perception that retail was in decline (think Sears, Toys “R” Us, JCPenney, and Bed Bath & Beyond).

However, that narrative was incomplete. Even during this period, well-located and necessity-based retail continued to perform, supported by grocery, dining, services, and experience-driven uses. Strong centers with the right tenant mix and demographics remained resilient, while challenges were largely concentrated in outdated or overbuilt formats.

In reality, retail has been rebalancing rather than disappearing. Physical retail today must offer more than products on shelves—it must provide experiences and environments that online shopping cannot replicate.

This shift has led to a redefinition of retail, not its extinction. Across markets, experiential and mixed-use formats, including pop-ups, entertainment-driven destinations, and hybrid retail concepts, are consistently outperforming traditional strip centers.

These Modern Retail Spaces are Designed to:  

• Attract foot traffic  

• Encourage longer visits  

• Provide experiences that cannot be replicated online  

What This Means  

Retail is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic norms because the future of retail will favor:  

• Picking the right mix of stores for the local area instead of filling in a center with the same big-name chains as everywhere else.  

• Adding experience and entertainment will build a high retention rate.  

• Combining retail with homes, offices, and lifestyle spaces creates a long-lasting and attractive place to visit.  

• Quality, design, and overall experience are more important than just having a lot of space.  

Why the Sunbelt Is Well Positioned 

1. Rapid Population Growth 

More residents create a high demand for housing, retail, and services. 

1. Economic Expansion 

The region has strong job growth, especially in tech, healthcare, energy, and service industries. Growing employment attracts workers who need housing, shopping, and amenities.  

1. Favorable Climate: 

Mild winters and warm weather encourage outdoor shopping, entertainment, and mix-use developments 

1. Pro-business Environments: 

Many Sunbelt states have low taxes and business-friendly regulations, which encourages commercial development.  

Bottom Line: 

Retail sentiment is no longer trending toward its disappearance, but it has become more selective. Performance today is driven by location, tenant mix, and the ability to serve how people actually live, work, and spend time. Markets like the Sunbelt, which support population growth, mixed-use development, and experience-driven retail, remain well positioned. At Lowery Property Advisors, we evaluate commercial properties with this perspective, focusing on fundamentals, market context, and how assets are positioned for long-term relevance.

The commercial real estate market in 2025 did not move in one direction, or for one reason. Instead, performance varied widely by region, asset type, and local fundamentals, reinforcing a key lesson for property owners, investors, and lenders: national headlines only tell part of the story.

Using CoStar-reported trends and market observations from across the country, here’s a look at how different regions and asset classes performed in 2025, and what those differences mean heading into 2026.

Sun Belt Markets: Growth Still Matters—But Selectivity Is Key

Markets such as Tampa, Dallas–Fort Worth, Austin, Phoenix, and Nashville continued to outperform many national averages, supported by population inflows, employment growth, and business expansion.

What we saw in 2025:

• Retail and industrial assets remained resilient

• Rent growth moderated but stayed positive relative to the U.S. average

• Office performance varied widely by submarket and building quality

• New construction slowed, helping stabilize fundamentals

Key takeaway:
Growth markets still rewarded investors and owners—but only when assets were well located and aligned with current tenant demand. The days of broad-based appreciation gave way to property-level performance differentiation.

Midwest & Secondary Markets: Stability Over Speed

Markets like Indianapolis, Columbus, Kansas City, Minneapolis, and Des Moines demonstrated a different kind of strength in 2025—consistency.

What we saw in 2025:

• Less pricing volatility than coastal or high-growth markets

• Continued demand for industrial and necessity-based retail

• Steady occupancy supported by diversified local economies

• Investor interest driven by lower basis and predictable cash flow

Key takeaway:
In a cautious capital environment, stability became an advantage. Secondary markets proved that slower growth does not necessarily mean weaker fundamentals—particularly when operating costs and entry pricing remain favorable.

Coastal Gateway Markets: Correction and Repricing Continue

Major coastal metros—including New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Seattle, and Boston—continued to adjust in 2025, particularly in the office sector.

What we saw in 2025:

• Office pricing resets driven by utilization and leasing uncertainty

• Increased bid-ask spreads across several asset types

• Strong demand for best-in-class assets, even as overall volume remained muted

• Greater scrutiny of income assumptions and exit cap rates

Key takeaway:
2025 reinforced the importance of current, market-supported valuations in gateway cities. While challenges persisted, well-located and well-leased properties continued to trade—just under more disciplined assumptions.

Asset Class Performance: Not All CRE Moved Together

Retail

Retail was one of the more stable asset classes in 2025, particularly for:

• Grocery-anchored centers

• Neighborhood retail

• Smaller-format spaces favored by national brands

Construction remained limited, supporting rent levels in many markets.

Industrial

Industrial demand normalized after record highs in prior years, but fundamentals remained healthy:

• Vacancy increased modestly in some markets

• Rent growth slowed but stayed positive

• Location and logistics efficiency became even more important

Office

Office performance was highly market and asset-specific:

• Class A, well-amenitized buildings outperformed

• Commodity office faced continued leasing challenges

• Valuations depended heavily on tenant quality and lease duration

Multifamily

Multifamily experienced:

• Slower rent growth due to new supply deliveries

• Generally stable occupancy in growth markets

• Greater emphasis on operating efficiency and expense management

Key takeaway:
In 2025, asset class performance depended less on category and more on execution, location, and market fundamentals.

What 2025 Taught the CRE Market

Several clear lessons emerged:

• There is no “average” CRE market anymore

• Regional and submarket data matters more than national trends

• Asset quality and tenant profile drive value

• Accurate valuations require real-time, localized insight

These themes shaped decision-making throughout 2025 and will continue to influence transactions, financing, and development strategies in 2026.

Looking Ahead to 2026

As markets move further into normalization, success will depend on understanding where demand is durable, where pricing has adjusted, and where assumptions need to be reset.

At Lowery Property Advisors, we evaluate commercial real estate through a market-specific, data-driven lens, recognizing that credible valuations depend on understanding not just what happened—but why it happened in each market. As regional differences continue to shape performance, clarity and context remain essential for informed real estate decisions.